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Financial Modelling for PPP/PFI
3 March - 4 March 2010
Financial Modelling for PPP/PFI

Financial Models for PPP/PFI need to be more robust than ever and yet continue to retain flexibility and reliability. SAE Media Group’s 12th annual conference will offer you critical insights into how models are used and perceived by all project players.

With the economy heading towards growth, financial institutions have never been under greater scrutiny to provide the most efficient and cost effective models possible. With this added pressure in mind the conference will assist and direct you in making the right decisions, at the right time - for you. By considering the expectations of the key stakeholders this event will offer an invaluable look into the next generation of financial models and will be an unmissable conference for the industry. 

Hugo Teixeira, Director, Credit Analysis & Decision Structure Finance, WestLB

John Richter, Director, Financial Mechanics

Conference agenda

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8:30

Registration & Coffee

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8:30

Registration and Coffee

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9:00

Understanding the Basics

·         Financial modelling best practice

·         High level overview of the model

·         PFI / PPP financial modelling terminology

 

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9:00

Introduction

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9:10

Targets and Constraints

  • How do the assesment criteria effect the optimaisation?
  • What will win the bid?
    • Equity returns: What is cheapest? What is possible?
    • Revenue: How low can we go?
    • Sculpted debt service, meeting cover factors, maximising loan life
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    9:40

    Technical Issues

  • Circularity
  • Multiple solutions
  • Applying constraints
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    10:10

    Sculpting debt service to meet ADSCR targets

  • Constraining repayments by ADSCR targets without circularity
  • Utilising full loan life
  • Review of debt-service sculpting in an illustrative model
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    10:30

    Morning Coffee

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    10:30

    First Practical Exercise

  • Delegates will work under detailed guidance from the course director to model sculpting of senior debt service to meet ADSCR targets
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    11:00

    Modelling Issues

     

    ·         Key output schedules

    ·         Financing issues

    ·         Accounting and taxation issues

     

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    11:10

    Morning Coffee

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    11:40

    Optimised Revenues

    ·          What constrains minimum revenue figures?

    ·          Calculating costs-matched revenues for each period

    ·          Equity returns

    ·          Tax

    ·          Circularity and avoiding circular code

    ·          Calculating an inflating fixed annual revenue figure

    ·          Targeting IRR

    ·          Targeting LLCR

    ·          ADSCR & irregular costs

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    12:00

    Review of revenue optimisation in illustrative models

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    12:05

    Second practical exercise

  • Using the model from the first practical exercise delegates will work under guidance from the course director to include calculation of the lowest inflating fixed annual revenue figure which meets LLCR and IRR targets 
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    12:30

    Lunch

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    12:45

    What else can we do?

  • Discussion of other optimisation modelling opportunities
    • Debt:equity ratio
    • Back-ended debt service
    • Not-for-profit deals and 'perfect' optimisation
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    13:00

    Summary & Discussion

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    13:30

    Modelling Issues Continued

    ·         Optimising the unitary charge

    ·         Sensitivity logic

    ·         Debt sculpting

     

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    15:10

    Afternoon Tea

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    16:00

    Using the Model

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    16:30

    Finalising the Model

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    17:00

    Discussions and Questions

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    17:30

    Close of Executive Briefing

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    8:30

    Registration & Coffee

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    9:00

    Chairman's Opening Remarks

    Kenny Whitelaw-Jones

    Kenny Whitelaw-Jones, Director, Financial Mechanics

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    9:10

    Keynote Address

    Hugo Teixiera

    Hugo Teixiera, Director, Credit Analysis & Decision Structure Finance, WestLB AG

    ·                 Brief summary of recent events (credit crunch, liquidity, ...)

    ·                 Increased complexity of financing structures (e.g. "Soft" mini-perms)

    ·                 Increased focus of decision makers on robust financial models

    ·                 Financial models to adapt to new requirements

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    9:50

    Time to Grow Up, Time to Raise Modelling Standards

    Morten Siersted

    Morten Siersted, CEO, F1F9

    ·          Current generally accepted best practice

    ·          The case for a more prescriptive modelling approach

    ·          The FAST modelling method

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    10:30

    Morning Coffee

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    11:00

    Financial Model Audit

    Jerome Brice

    Jerome Brice, Partner, Project Finance, Mazars

    ·          What is a model audit, and what does the auditor do?

    ·          What is the current thinking on best approaches to ensuring financial model accuracy?

    ·          What is the role of the model auditor post financial close?

    ·          How can the public as well as private sector can best benefit from a model audit?

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    11:40

    Choosing Your Model Auditor

    Andy  Hucknall

    Andy Hucknall, Associate Director, PKF (UK) LLP

    ·          Assurance rather than insurance;

    ·          Understand their methodology;

    ·          Do they provide the full service you require?

    ·          Agreeing the right scope for you.

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    12:20

    Networking Lunch

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    13:20

    A Lenders Expectation of a Model

    Gurjit Orjela

    Gurjit Orjela, Project Financier, Bank of Ireland

    ·                 Clear

    ·                 Comprehensive

    ·                 Flexible

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    13:50

    Project Developers Expectation of Their Financial Model

    Mzia Makharadze

    Mzia Makharadze, Advisory, ECA & Environmental Projects, SMBC Europe Limited

    ·          Financial model - clear, concise, flexible tool for analyses and decision making

     

     

    ·          Reflecting requirements of each project sponsor in the model

    ·          Running reference case and sensitivity analyses

    ·          Communicating results effectively with sponsors

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    14:30

    Afternoon Tea

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    15:00

    What do Lenders do with Financial Models?

    ·                 What do lenders really do with models?

    ·                 How to upset your lenders, a step-by-step guide

    ·                 Sensitivities

    ·                 The model audit

    ·                 Post financial close considerations

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    15:30

    Case Study – Applying a Model to Different Projects

    Maggie  Rafalowicz

    Maggie Rafalowicz , Assistant Director, Strategy & Regeneration , Brent London Borough Council

    ·                 Overview of London Borough of Brent’s aims for future projects

    ·                 Non HRA housing

    ·                 Leisure

    ·                 Street lighting

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    16:10

    Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Close of Day One

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    8:30

    Registration & Coffee

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    9:00

    Chairman's Opening Remarks

    Morten Siersted

    Morten Siersted, CEO, F1F9

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    9:10

    Keynote Address

    Kenny Whitelaw-Jones

    Kenny Whitelaw-Jones, Director, Financial Mechanics

  • Bad design is everywhere
  • Financial Modelling: comparison of design approaches
  • Structure factors of the Financial Modelling industry
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    9:50

    Modelling tax and accounting for PPP/PFI Projects

    Stewart  Rolls

    Stewart Rolls, Associate Director, Corporate Finance, KPMG

    ·          Tax and accounting principles that apply to PPP/PFI

    ·          Approach to modelling and common errors

    ·          Differences across sectors

    ·          IFRS vs. GAAP – implications for bidders

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    10:30

    Morning Coffee

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    11:00

    Optimising Models

    Penelope Anne Lynch

    Penelope Anne Lynch, Senior Consultant, Lynch Financial Modelling

    ·                 What can optimisation achieve

    ·                 Understanding the targets and constraints

    ·                 Handling circularity

    ·                 Looking for the simplest solution

    ·                 How clever can it get?

    ·                 Is there a downside to highly optimised bids?

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    11:40

    Project Optimization through Financial Models and Tailor-made User Interfaces

    Yann  Pleindoux

    Yann Pleindoux , , RebelGroup Advisory

    ·          Different type of models at different project stages, going from input-based to output-based models

    ·          Identifying the critical parameters for optimization

    ·          Designing and ergonomic and flexible user interface = the “Cockpit”

    ·          The key of efficient Cockpit structure

    ·          How to build optimizers

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    12:20

    Networking Lunch

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    13:20

    Operational Models

    David  Scrivens

    David Scrivens, Director , Clubfinance Ltd

  • The need for operational models
  • The benefits of operational models
  • Common issues for operational contracts
  • Implementing operational models
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    14:00

    Modelling Power Markets

    Nazim Osmancik

    Nazim Osmancik, Head of Energy Analytics, IPA Economics

  • Power Market Modelling
  • Challenges and Issues
  • The ECLIPSE® Platform
  • Sample Outputs
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    14:40

    Afternoon Tea

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    15:00

    Critical Review of Models for PPP

    Colin Ratcliffe

    Colin Ratcliffe, Senior Auditor, National Audit Office

    ·                 Where has modeling gone wrong?

    ·                 Can we get back on track?

    ·                 Will confidence be restored to modeling tools?

    ·                 What does the future hold?

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    15:40

    Avoiding Project Collapse

    Jimmy McGuinness

    Jimmy McGuinness, PPP Project Manager, East Lothian Council

    ·         Consequences of project collapse

    ·         Developing trusting partnerships

    ·         Implementing greater diligence earlier

    ·         Money matters

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    16:20

    Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Afternoon Tea

    Workshops

    PFI / PPP Financial Modelling For Bids

    PFI / PPP Financial Modelling For Bids

    Crowne Plaza Hotel - St James
    2 March 2010
    London, United Kingdom

    Optimisation of PPP and PFI models

    Optimisation of PPP and PFI models

    Crowne Plaza Hotel - St James
    2 March 2010
    London, United Kingdom

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    Crowne Plaza Hotel - St James

    Buckingham Gate 45/51, London, United Kingdom

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    WHAT IS CPD?

    CPD stands for Continuing Professional Development’. It is essentially a philosophy, which maintains that in order to be effective, learning should be organised and structured. The most common definition is:

    ‘A commitment to structured skills and knowledge enhancement for Personal or Professional competence’

    CPD is a common requirement of individual membership with professional bodies and Institutes. Increasingly, employers also expect their staff to undertake regular CPD activities.

    Undertaken over a period of time, CPD ensures that educational qualifications do not become obsolete, and allows for best practice and professional standards to be upheld.

    CPD can be undertaken through a variety of learning activities including instructor led training courses, seminars and conferences, e:learning modules or structured reading.

    CPD AND PROFESSIONAL INSTITUTES

    There are approximately 470 institutes in the UK across all industry sectors, with a collective membership of circa 4 million professionals, and they all expect their members to undertake CPD.

    For some institutes undertaking CPD is mandatory e.g. accountancy and law, and linked to a licence to practice, for others it’s obligatory. By ensuring that their members undertake CPD, the professional bodies seek to ensure that professional standards, legislative awareness and ethical practices are maintained.

    CPD Schemes often run over the period of a year and the institutes generally provide online tools for their members to record and reflect on their CPD activities.

    TYPICAL CPD SCHEMES AND RECORDING OF CPD (CPD points and hours)

    Professional bodies and Institutes CPD schemes are either structured as ‘Input’ or ‘Output’ based.

    ‘Input’ based schemes list a precise number of CPD hours that individuals must achieve within a given time period. These schemes can also use different ‘currencies’ such as points, merits, units or credits, where an individual must accumulate the number required. These currencies are usually based on time i.e. 1 CPD point = 1 hour of learning.

    ‘Output’ based schemes are learner centred. They require individuals to set learning goals that align to professional competencies, or personal development objectives. These schemes also list different ways to achieve the learning goals e.g. training courses, seminars or e:learning, which enables an individual to complete their CPD through their preferred mode of learning.

    The majority of Input and Output based schemes actively encourage individuals to seek appropriate CPD activities independently.

    As a formal provider of CPD certified activities, SAE Media Group can provide an indication of the learning benefit gained and the typical completion. However, it is ultimately the responsibility of the delegate to evaluate their learning, and record it correctly in line with their professional body’s or employers requirements.

    GLOBAL CPD

    Increasingly, international and emerging markets are ‘professionalising’ their workforces and looking to the UK to benchmark educational standards. The undertaking of CPD is now increasingly expected of any individual employed within today’s global marketplace.

    CPD Certificates

    We can provide a certificate for all our accredited events. To request a CPD certificate for a conference , workshop, master classes you have attended please email events@saemediagroup.com

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    UK Office
    Opening Hours: 9.00 - 17.30 (local time)
    SAE Media Group , Ground Floor, India House, 45 Curlew Street, London, SE1 2ND, United Kingdom
    Tel: +44 (0) 20 7827 6000 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7827 6001
    Website: http://www.smgconferences.com Email: events@saemediagroup.com
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