Confirmed speakers include:
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James Robertson, Chief Economist and Director PFI Value for Money Studies, National Audit Office
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- The value of modeling risk in business cases: why not incorporating risk can mis-inform investment decisions
- Basic Business Case Modeling: setting up the modeling framework
- Basic Risk Modeling: basic does not mean simplistic – what to do to avoid naïve analysis and invalid results
- Scoping the Risk Analysis correctly: how to decide which risks should and should not be included
- Combining the Risk and Business Case Modeling: how risks affect business risk model components
Questions and afternoon tea - Necessary Sophistications: how to analyse risks properly and some advanced modeling techniques
- Using the results to inform the investment decision, and to devise the subsequent risk management plan
Review of the session and Q&A. Close of workshop. Chairman's Opening Remarks Mike Walker, Director and Past Chairman - Institute of Risk Management: Chairman of the PPP/PFI Special Interest Group, The Institute of Risk Management THE VIEW OF THE AUDITOR ON RISKS IN PFI/PPP James Robertson, Chief Economist and Director PFI Value for Money Studies, National Audit Office - Addressing value for money risks in general
- Lessons from past problems
- Learning from successes
GETTING TO THE OJEU STARTING POST Geoff Beck, Head of Environmental Services, Milton Keynes Council - Preconceptions Purpose Projects
- Introduction to Milton Keynes Council and Northampton County Council, background to waste treatment and disposal needs and resulting partnership. - Prophecy Politics Payment
- Risk identification, future scoping, mixed political manifestos and financial implications - Probability Proximity Proportionality
- Risk assessment and evaluation in the context of the project - Plans Promulgation Pragmatism
- Risk planning, communications and risk management in practice. - Public Private Partnerships
- Partnerships between public authorities and private companies as well as between authorities and their stakeholders.
IDENTIFYING AND MANAGING THE RISKS ASSUMED BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR - Context of the proposal - nature of the company
- How does the risk profile change for an independent SME?
- On-going risk management to financial close
- Dealing with unplanned situations
- Lessons learned
Gerran McCrea, PFI Project Manager, Donarbon Ltd James Watson, Associate, Projects & International Construction Group, Pinsent Masons RISK AND THE BUSINESS CASE Derek Salkeld, Risk Analyst, D S & A Ltd. - Scoping the analysis
- Incorporating risks into a business case
- Necessary sophistications for risk modeling and risk allocation
- How the results can be used to inform a decision
MANAGING RISKS PRIOR TO FINANCIAL CLOSE Jim Buchanan, Partner, Berwin Leighton Paisner - Making the project attractive to the market
- Proper evaluation and probing of bid responses
- Testing risk profile from a funder perspective
- Potential rescoping and impact of planning/judicial review
- Early works
- How to unlock affordability issues
DELAYS TO PFI/PPP PROJECTS - FUNDER'S ISSUES Kenny Simpson, Director of Infrastructure Finance, Bank of Scotland - Pre-financial close (current treatment of delay by funders)
- Post-financial close (current treatment of delay by funders)
- Reasons for delays
- Case study (1) - delay due to contractor receivership
- Case study (2) - delay due to poor project management
REVITALISING THE LONDON BOROUGH OF BEXLEY’S LEISURE CENTRES Mike Ellsmore, Assistant Director, Audit, Technical and Exchequer, London Borough of Bexley - Background to the project
- The need for change
- Financial equation
- Use of Prudential Borrowing
- Risk allocation
- Refinancing the project
- Use of consultants
David Marshall, Director, Projects & Portfolio Finance, John Laing plc - Short term operational risks
- Interface risks
- Long-term threats
- Variations and material contract alterations
- Major impacts
- Opportunities
Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Close of Day One Mike Walker, Director and Past Chairman - Institute of Risk Management: Chairman of the PPP/PFI Special Interest Group, The Institute of Risk Management Chairman's Opening Remarks Paul Dudley, Head of Risk Management, Hertfordshire County Council, and Director, ALARM EXPLORING AND MITIGATING RISKS IN OPERATIONAL PROJECTS - Operator Distress
- Payment Mechanism deductions
- Contract Variations
- Contractor Compensation Events
- Poor Contract Management
CONTRACT VARIATIONS - RISK OR OPPORTUNITY? Dominic Leadsom, Director, Turner & Townsend - Guide to effective Public Sector management of variations.
- Variations – SPV risk or opportunity for profit?
- What do the Lenders think?
- Case Study - Northampton Grouped Schools PFI variation
BARKANTINE - A COMMUNITY PROJECT. MANAGING THE RISK Sian Pipe, Energy Contracts Manager, London Borough of Tower Hamlets Energy Services Unit - Project overview
- Identified risks
- Problems encountered
- A lesson learned.......
SUCCESSFULLY MITIGATING RISK TO THE AUTHORITY Brian Howard, PFI Project Manager, Peterborough City Council - The importance of anticipating post-contract risks in the pre-contract stage
- The relationship with the contractor
- Key factors to delivering on schedule
- Key factors to delivering on budget
- Success of risk mitigation in the Peterborough project
CONTRACT SIGNED: NOW THE REALITY! David Ewen, Strategic Development Director, HOCHTIEF Facility Management UK Ltd. - Key Areas of Risk Management
- Staff Transfer/Employee Issues (TUPE)
- Performance/Availability
- Malicious Damage/Vandalism
- Maintenance/Life Cycle/Handback
- Security/Access
- Reporting Requirements
EXPERIENCES OF MANAGING RISK IN A LIVE PPP ENVIRONMENT Alex Foulds, Director of Risk, Tube Lines Ltd - Engaging people
- Whole live view
- Driving performance
- Responding to a changing agenda
CORPORATE RISKS FACED BY PPP SPV ORGANISATIONS Socrates Coudounaris, Risk Management Consultant , OmegaRisk Business & Risk Consultancy - Risk Perceptions
- Risk Attitudes & Perspectives
- Identifying Significant Risks to the SPV Organisation
- Operational Risks
- Treating and Transferring Risk
Andrew Birt, Partner, Construction, JLT Limited - How much risk can be insured?
- Physical risks in different PPP projects
- Revenue stream protection
- What if insurance protection is unavailable?
Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Close of Conference
Workshops
The Hatton, at etc. venues 28 April 2008 London, United Kingdom
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